Amed’s home edge is clear with a 100% Poisson distribution for scoring versus 0% for the away side, paired with a 75% attacking strength compared to Besiktas’ 25%. The evidence is reinforced by a strong season showing of a 3-0 win at home and a superior clean sheet record. Although defensive concerns remain with a 33% home defensive rating versus 67% for the away, the overall indicators favor Amed. This pick synthesizes form, attacking metrics, and season stats, while the risk remains medium given some defensive vulnerability. The combined metrics lead us to a confident call.