Sporting CP
Full Time
Arouca
🤖 AI Predictions
Best Bet
Home Win
3-Way Result
90%
confidence
Our best bet is the 3-Way Result with a Home Win for Sporting CP, backed by multiple strong indicators. Sporting’s h2h advantage is at 93% and Poisson distribution gives an 84% edge, bolstered by a 57% positive form compared to Arouca’s 43%. The season stats show Sporting scoring an average of 2.8 goals with robust winning form (DWWWW). H2H evidence and comparison metrics align, confirming the high reliability of a home win, though minor risk remains due to a 70.5% overall home advantage. The prediction takes into account the balance of statistical weights and has been conservatively set at 90% confidence. Given no bookmaker odds provided, we use fallback odds calculated as 100/90.
Best Value
Home Win or Draw
Double Chance
The best optimal pick is Double Chance: Home Win or Draw, which shows very strong convergence of evidence with a 95% probability. Comparison metrics provide a 70.5% total home edge and a 57% home form advantage, while H2H data heavily favors Sporting CP. This, along with season goals stats and fixture consistency, creates value despite minor uncertainties. We note that while fallback odds are used in absence of bookmaker odds, the value edge is set at a high level. This option meets the required threshold with high consensus across metrics. We assign a value rating of 5, reflecting a ≥30% edge.
95%
prob.
1.05
odds
All Markets
3-Way Result
Home Win
93% h2h and 84% Poisson
90%
odds 1.11
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
70.5% overall home advantage and 57% home form
95%
odds 1.05
Match Summary
Recent Form (last 5)
League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 7 | 7 | 21 |
| 2 |  Benfica | 7 | 5 | 16 |
| 3 | Sporting CP ● | 7 | 4 | 15 |
| 4 |  Santa Clara | 7 | 4 | 15 |
| 5 | Arouca ● | 7 | 3 | 11 |
| 6 |  SC Braga | 6 | 3 | 11 |
| 7 |  Academico Viseu | 7 | 3 | 11 |
| 8 |  Estrela | 7 | 2 | 10 |
| 9 |  GIL Vicente | 6 | 2 | 8 |
| 10 |  Alverca | 7 | 2 | 8 |
| 11 |  Maritimo | 7 | 2 | 8 |
| 12 |  Moreirense | 7 | 2 | 8 |
| 13 |  Famalicao | 7 | 1 | 7 |
| 14 |  Vitória SC | 7 | 1 | 5 |
| 15 |  Nacional | 7 | 1 | 4 |
| 16 |  Rio Ave | 7 | 1 | 4 |
| 17 |  Casa Pia | 7 | 1 | 4 |
| 18 |  Estoril | 7 | 0 | 2 |
Betting Odds
Match Winner
Sporting CP
1.17
Draw
8.00
Arouca
13.00
Goals Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
1.40
Under 2.5
2.88
Both Teams Score
Yes
2.00
No
1.75
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