Osasuna
Full Time
Rayo Vallecano
🤖 AI Predictions
Best Bet
Home or Draw
3-Way Result / Double Chance
90%
confidence
Double Chance (Home or Draw) emerges as our highest confidence pick with a 90% probability, bolstered by Osasuna’s 64% home form and a dominant Poisson distribution of 100% for home. H2H results indicate a balanced contest but Osasuna’s recent stats, including a 63% defensive performance in their last five, further enhance the call. Season performance reflects a stable home record (DWWL) and Osasuna’s ability to secure results. While the H2H is split, the evidence heavily favors avoiding an away upset. The risk is minimal given the convergence of metrics. Overall, we maintain a high confidence level for this market.
Best Value
Home Win
3-Way Result
Our best value pick is the 3-Way Home Win selection, offering a potential value edge if bookmakers undervalue the outcome at odds of 1.900. Osasuna’s 64% home form combined with a 100% Poisson distribution supports an 85% probability for a home win, and historical H2H shows a balanced 50%-50% split which is offset by statistical home advantages. Season metrics and last-5 form (defensive 63% for Osasuna) add to the strong case. While H2H data present mixed results, the odds suggest a favorable discrepancy. The risk remains moderate given external variances but the convergence of comparison and season stats gives a compelling argument.
85%
prob.
0
odds
All Markets
3-Way Result
Home Win
64% home form and 100% Poisson for home
85%
odds 1.18
Double Chance
Home or Draw
90% probability with 64% home form
90%
odds 1.11
Match Summary
Recent Form (last 5)
League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 7 | 7 | 21 |
| 2 |  Atletico Madrid | 7 | 5 | 16 |
| 3 |  Real Betis | 7 | 5 | 16 |
| 4 |  Real Madrid | 7 | 5 | 15 |
| 5 |  Sevilla | 7 | 4 | 13 |
| 6 |  Alaves | 7 | 3 | 11 |
| 7 |  Deportivo La Coruna | 7 | 2 | 10 |
| 8 |  Real Sociedad | 7 | 3 | 10 |
| 9 |  Villarreal | 7 | 2 | 8 |
| 10 |  Athletic Club | 6 | 2 | 8 |
| 11 |  Getafe | 7 | 2 | 8 |
| 12 | Rayo Vallecano ● | 7 | 2 | 8 |
| 13 | Osasuna ● | 7 | 2 | 8 |
| 14 |  Celta Vigo | 7 | 1 | 7 |
| 15 |  Espanyol | 7 | 2 | 7 |
| 16 |  Racing Santander | 7 | 2 | 7 |
| 17 |  Levante | 6 | 1 | 5 |
| 18 |  Elche | 7 | 1 | 5 |
| 19 |  Valencia | 7 | 1 | 4 |
| 20 |  Malaga | 7 | 0 | 3 |
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