The comprehensive data heavily favor Maribor at home with a 64% advantage in form and 100% Poisson support for a home win. H2H metrics also lean towards Maribor with a 62% advantage over Aluminij. Season stats reinforce this with Maribor averaging 2.5 goals at home versus Aluminij’s lower away output, while last‐5 form shows 60% for Maribor against 42% for Aluminij. The combined weight of comparison (35%) and H2H (30%) plus season metrics (25%) offers a strongly convergent signal. This high degree of agreement among the metrics gives us confidence in a Home Win. However, minor risks exist from occasional draws observed in H2H, so caution is advised. Overall, our analysis estimates an 85% probability for a Home Win.