Doubling down on home security, the double chance (Home/Draw) is supported by Pogon’s strong home form of 64% and a league record of 4 wins and 3 draws in 8 matches. The comparison metrics (70% attack, 67% defense) and season stats reinforce a safe outcome despite H2H data (home 29% vs away 71%), making this pick a conservative safety net. The collective evidence across form (64% home) and season success (87.5% combining wins and draws at home) underpins this choice while mitigating risk. This option consolidates the advantage of home performance with protection if a draw occurs. The probability is set at 85%, keeping the risk low.