AZ Alkmaar
Full Time
Telstar
🤖 AI Predictions
Best Bet
Home Win
3-Way Result
90%
confidence
The home team AZ Alkmaar shows overwhelming strength with a 79% form and 76% attacking dominance compared to Telstar's 21% and 24% respectively. H2H data confirms a 100% win record for AZ in recent encounters, reinforcing this pick. Season stats also highlight AZ's scoring average of 3.2 goals per game and an undefeated record in their last 5 matches. These multiple metrics align to support a Home Win with ultra-conservative confidence. While the sample size in H2H is limited, the consistency in team form and Poisson distribution (72% for home) underpins this selection. Given the strong evidence, we assign a probability of 90%.
Best Value
Over 2.5
Goals Over/Under
The match is expected to produce plenty of goals, with a combined scoring average of 4.5 (AZ 3.2 and Telstar 1.3). Comparison metrics favor the home side with 71% in goals and 73% overall dominance, suggesting an attacking encounter. Additionally, AZ’s home season shows an over tendency with over 2.5 goals occurring in 3 of 5 fixtures. Convergence from Poisson distribution (72% home) and H2H trends further support a high-scoring match. This option offers significant value given the attacking statistics and minimal defensive solidity from Telstar. We set the probability at 85% with a value edge rating of 5 (≥30% edge).
85%
prob.
1.18
odds
All Markets
3-Way Result
Home Win
Home form at 79% and H2H at 100%
90%
odds 1.11
Double Chance
Home or Draw
AZ league form: WWWWW (100% in last 5)
93%
odds 1.08
Match Summary
Recent Form (last 5)
Current Standings
Head to Head
AZ Alkmaar Telstar AZ Alkmaar Telstar Telstar AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar Telstar League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AZ Alkmaar ● | 7 | 6 | 19 |
| 2 |  Feyenoord | 7 | 5 | 17 |
| 3 |  PSV Eindhoven | 7 | 5 | 16 |
| 4 |  Twente | 7 | 5 | 16 |
| 5 |  Ajax | 7 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 |  Fortuna Sittard | 7 | 4 | 13 |
| 7 |  Excelsior | 7 | 3 | 11 |
| 8 |  Groningen | 7 | 3 | 11 |
| 9 |  GO Ahead Eagles | 7 | 2 | 10 |
| 10 |  Heerenveen | 7 | 2 | 9 |
| 11 |  NEC Nijmegen | 7 | 2 | 8 |
| 12 |  Sparta Rotterdam | 7 | 1 | 5 |
| 13 | Telstar ● | 7 | 1 | 5 |
| 14 |  Cambuur | 7 | 1 | 5 |
| 15 |  Utrecht | 7 | 1 | 5 |
| 16 |  PEC Zwolle | 7 | 1 | 4 |
| 17 |  ADO Den Haag | 7 | 0 | 2 |
| 18 |  Willem II | 7 | 0 | 2 |
Betting Odds
Match Winner
AZ Alkmaar
1.28
Draw
6.00
Telstar
10.00
Goals Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
1.30
Under 2.5
3.50
Both Teams Score
Yes
1.62
No
2.20
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