Ajax
Full Time
Excelsior
🤖 AI Predictions
Best Bet
Home Win
3-Way Result
80%
confidence
Based on the data, Ajax, playing at home, shows a slight edge with a 54% form versus Excelsior's 46% combined with a 60% defensive advantage. H2H records indicate 6 Ajax wins out of 10 matchups and a 60% win rate overall for Ajax. Season stats also favor Ajax with a last-5 defensive rate of 92% and a clean sheet tendency. However, the Poisson metric is conflicting, so caution is advised despite the overall convergence on a home win. This makes the home win a strong candidate with broadly supportive evidence. The overall confidence is around 80%.
Best Value
Home Win or Draw
Double Chance
The value edge is evident in the Double Chance market where Ajax’s track record is highlighted by 9 out of 10 non-losses in H2H encounters. Comparison metrics (54% vs 46% in form) combined with season stats and a robust defensive profile (92% last-5 def) point towards Ajax avoiding defeat. This pick converges evidence from H2H and season data with a probability estimate of 90%. Despite some variance in the Poisson distribution, the convergence in multiple independent metrics supports this option. The value edge is significant here, making this the best optimal pick.
90%
prob.
1.11
odds
All Markets
3-Way Result
Home Win
Ajax wins in 6 out of 10 H2H matches (60%).
80%
odds 1.25
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
Ajax not losing in 9 out of 10 H2H matches (90%).
90%
odds 1.11
Match Summary
Recent Form (last 5)
Current Standings
League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  AZ Alkmaar | 7 | 6 | 19 |
| 2 |  Feyenoord | 7 | 5 | 17 |
| 3 |  PSV Eindhoven | 7 | 5 | 16 |
| 4 |  Twente | 7 | 5 | 16 |
| 5 | Ajax ● | 7 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 |  Fortuna Sittard | 7 | 4 | 13 |
| 7 | Excelsior ● | 7 | 3 | 11 |
| 8 |  Groningen | 7 | 3 | 11 |
| 9 |  GO Ahead Eagles | 7 | 2 | 10 |
| 10 |  Heerenveen | 7 | 2 | 9 |
| 11 |  NEC Nijmegen | 7 | 2 | 8 |
| 12 |  Sparta Rotterdam | 7 | 1 | 5 |
| 13 |  Telstar | 7 | 1 | 5 |
| 14 |  Cambuur | 7 | 1 | 5 |
| 15 |  Utrecht | 7 | 1 | 5 |
| 16 |  PEC Zwolle | 7 | 1 | 4 |
| 17 |  ADO Den Haag | 7 | 0 | 2 |
| 18 |  Willem II | 7 | 0 | 2 |
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