Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Full Time
Cherno More Varna
🤖 AI Predictions
Best Bet
Home/Draw
Double Chance
80%
confidence
The double chance (Home/Draw) stands out with convergence from home form at 75% and a strong Poisson distribution at 80%, offering safety despite mixed H2H signals (home 38% vs away 62%). This option protects against an upset while covering home win given Lokomotiv’s defensive strength with a 72% last-5 defense. Although attack figures lean away at 60%, the defensive solidity and overall metrics make Home/Draw a secure pick. This conservative choice aligns with 80% probability, slightly above the threshold for our best bet with minimal conflict among data points.
Best Value
Under 2.5
Goals Over/Under
The Under 2.5 Goals market reveals significant value with both teams showing a consistent record, as evidenced by Lokomotiv’s home under_over for 2.5 with 0 overs in 4 matches and Cherno More’s similar record away. The season data reveals that both teams have maintained an under result in 100% of the applicable fixtures, boosting confidence to 90%. This high degree of convergence, combined with defensive performance (Lokomotiv against average 1.3 and Cherno More 2.0) underscores a low scoring match. With a value edge rating clearly meeting the criteria, this pick presents a strong value opportunity.
90%
prob.
1.11
odds
All Markets
3-Way Result
Home Win
Home form 75% vs away form 25%
70%
odds 1.43
Double Chance
Home/Draw
Home Poisson 80% and 75% form
80%
odds 1.25
Match Summary
Recent Form (last 5)
League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Levski Sofia | 9 | 8 | 25 |
| 2 |  CSKA Sofia | 10 | 7 | 24 |
| 3 |  Ludogorets | 9 | 7 | 23 |
| 4 |  CSKA 1948 | 10 | 7 | 22 |
| 5 |  Arda Kardzhali | 10 | 5 | 17 |
| 6 |  Botev Plovdiv | 10 | 5 | 16 |
| 7 |  Slavia Sofia | 10 | 2 | 11 |
| 8 |  Spartak Varna | 10 | 2 | 10 |
| 9 |  Botev Vratsa | 10 | 2 | 9 |
| 10 |  Septemvri Sofia | 10 | 2 | 8 |
| 11 |  Lokomotiv Sofia | 10 | 1 | 7 |
| 12 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv ● | 10 | 2 | 7 |
| 13 | Cherno More Varna ● | 10 | 1 | 6 |
| 14 |  Dunav Ruse | 10 | 1 | 5 |
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