The majority of comparison metrics favor an away win with away form at 90% and h2h dominance at 100%, while season stats show Shandong Luneng averaging 1.4 goals in their last 5 matches versus Chongqing’s 0.4. Despite a slight conflict with the Poisson distribution (home 58% vs away 42%), overall evidence from form (90% away) and goals (69% away) is strong. H2H results also lean towards the away team by a decisive metric in one of the encounters. This prediction carries moderate risk given the Poisson anomaly, but the convergence of multiple data points supports it. Confidence is set at 90%.