Ararat-Armenia have a 0% failed-to-score rate and a 100% Poisson projection at home, which, along with a 2.0 goals average in their recent matches (50% form), supports a strong chance of them opening the scoring. Despite the away team's slightly higher attack at 56% compared to 44%, the home team’s consistency lends weight to this outcome. Multiple data points converge in favor of Ararat-Armenia scoring first, with balanced form (50% each) and season stats reinforcing the argument. The evidence from both team statistics and expected goal models builds a compelling case. There is some risk given the away team's capabilities, but overall confidence remains solid.