Football
Eredivisie Eredivisie
· Semi-finals
Ajax

Ajax

2–0

Full Time

Groningen

Groningen

🏟 Kras Stadion, Volendam
🟡 M. Nagtegaal
📋 Semi-finals
📅 2025

🤖 AI Predictions

Best Bet

Ajax Win

3-Way Result

85%

confidence

Odds: 1.85 bookmaker Medium Risk

Our analysis converges on Ajax winning the match as they have a higher home form of 53% compared to Groningen's 47% and a strong H2H advantage of 71% (vs 29%). Season data reveals Ajax’s better defensive record with 67% compared to Groningen’s 33% and more clean sheets at home. In addition, Ajax’s scoring is bolstered by an average of 1.9 goals at home. Multiple independent metrics support an Ajax victory. Although some H2H encounters were mixed, the overall evidence strongly favors Ajax with minimal conflict.

Best Value

Ajax Win

3-Way Result

The 3-Way Ajax Win bet carries substantial value with an estimated 85% probability against a bookmaker implied probability of roughly 54% from odds of 1.85, yielding about a 57% edge. Comparison metrics including a 71% H2H advantage and a 64% Poisson home probability further reinforce this pick. Ajax’s strong home defense (67%) and favorable season stats add to the convergence of evidence. Despite a few mixed H2H results, the data aligns with a high confidence level. This option meets the required probability threshold while offering a significant value edge.

85%

prob.

1.85

odds

All Markets

3-Way Result

Ajax Win

Ajax H2H advantage of 71% vs Groningen 29%

85%

odds 1.85

Double Chance

Ajax or Draw

Ajax home form at 53% with 67% defensive rating

80%

odds 1.25

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Match Summary

Recent Form (last 5)

Ajax
Ajax
LWWDL
Groningen
Groningen
LWWLL

Current Standings

5
Ajax
Ajax
34 P 14 W 56 Pts
9
Groningen
Groningen
34 P 14 W 48 Pts

Head to Head

21 May 26
Ajax Ajax
2–0
Groningen Groningen
H
7 Mar 26
Groningen Groningen
3–1
Ajax Ajax
H
2 Dec 25
Ajax Ajax
2–0
Groningen Groningen
H
14 May 25
Groningen Groningen
2–2
Ajax Ajax
D
6 Oct 24
Ajax Ajax
3–1
Groningen Groningen
H

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League Standings

# Team P W Pts
1
Cambuur Cambuur
0 0 0
2
Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard
0 0 0
3
Telstar Telstar
0 0 0
4
PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle
0 0 0
5
PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven
0 0 0
6
Ajax Ajax
0 0 0
7
Twente Twente
0 0 0
8
Heerenveen Heerenveen
0 0 0
9
Feyenoord Feyenoord
0 0 0
10
NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen
0 0 0
11
Utrecht Utrecht
0 0 0
12
AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar
0 0 0
13
Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam
0 0 0
14
Willem II Willem II
0 0 0
15
Excelsior Excelsior
0 0 0
16
ADO Den Haag ADO Den Haag
0 0 0
17
GO Ahead Eagles GO Ahead Eagles
0 0 0
18
Groningen Groningen
0 0 0
Champions League Europa / Conference Relegation
🏀 🎾 🏈

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