Football
UEFA Europa Conference League UEFA Europa Conference League
· Round of 16
Celje

Celje

0–4

Full Time

AEK Athens FC

AEK Athens FC

🟡 L. M. Branco Godinho
📋 Round of 16
📅 2025

🤖 AI Predictions

Best Bet

Double Chance (Draw or AEK)

Double Chance

80%

confidence

Odds: 1.5 Medium Risk

Our best bet is the Double Chance (Draw or AEK) option, as provider percentages show 45% for draw and 45% for an AEK win, aggregating to 90% combined support. Recent form stats also favor AEK with 87% in their last 5 compared to Celje’s 47%, though a past H2H match ended 3-1 in Celje’s favor. This convergence of provider advice and AEK’s superior attacking (93% vs 50%) and defensive (71% vs 36%) records makes this bet safer despite the isolated H2H conflict. Season under/over data further support a match where AEK are unlikely to lose. The risk is moderate given the contrast with the H2H result. Overall, we assign this bet an 80% probability, with fair odds estimated at 1.50.

Best Value

BTTS: Yes

BTTS

The best value option is BTTS (Both Teams To Score: Yes), driven by AEK’s potent attack (scoring 13 goals in 5 games, averaging 2.6) and Celje’s tendency to get on the scoresheet (7 goals in 5 matches, averaging 1.4). The H2H match that ended 3-1 confirms both teams found the net, and Celje’s defensive inefficiency (def 36% in last 5) reinforces this bet. With AEK’s impressive 93% attacking performance and Celje’s 1.8 goals conceded on average at home, multiple metrics converge on BTTS being likely. Despite minor risks from a strong H2H performance by Celje previously, the evidence drives a confident value edge. We assign a probability of 85% and believe the fair odds around 1.70 offer at least a 30% value edge.

85%

prob.

1.7

odds

All Markets

3-Way Result

AEK Win

AEK form 87% compared to Celje 47%

60%

odds 2

Double Chance

Double Chance (Draw or AEK)

Provider draw 45% and away win 45% give 90% combined

80%

odds 1.5

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Match Summary

Recent Form (last 5)

Celje
Celje
WWWWW
AEK Athens FC
AEK Athens FC
WLWWL

Current Standings

3
AEK Athens FC
AEK Athens FC
6 P 4 W 13 Pts
13
Celje
Celje
6 P 3 W 10 Pts

Head to Head

19 Mar 26
AEK Athens FC AEK Athens FC
0–2
Celje Celje
A
12 Mar 26
Celje Celje
0–4
AEK Athens FC AEK Athens FC
A
2 Oct 25
Celje Celje
3–1
AEK Athens FC AEK Athens FC
H

League Standings

# Team P W Pts
1
Strasbourg Strasbourg
6 5 16
2
Raków Częstochowa Raków Częstochowa
6 4 14
3
AEK Athens FC AEK Athens FC
6 4 13
4
Sparta Praha Sparta Praha
6 4 13
5
Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano
6 4 13
6
Shakhtar Donetsk Shakhtar Donetsk
6 4 13
7
FSV Mainz 05 FSV Mainz 05
6 4 13
8
AEK Larnaca AEK Larnaca
6 3 12
9
Lausanne Lausanne
6 3 11
10
Crystal Palace Crystal Palace
6 3 10
11
Lech Poznan Lech Poznan
6 3 10
12
Samsunspor Samsunspor
6 3 10
13
Celje Celje
6 3 10
14
AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar
6 3 10
15
Fiorentina Fiorentina
6 3 9
16
HNK Rijeka HNK Rijeka
6 2 9
17
Jagiellonia Jagiellonia
6 2 9
18
Omonia Nicosia Omonia Nicosia
6 2 8
19
FC Noah FC Noah
6 2 8
20
Drita Drita
6 2 8
21
KuPS KuPS
6 1 7
22
Shkendija Shkendija
6 2 7
23
Zrinjski Zrinjski
6 2 7
24
Sigma Olomouc Sigma Olomouc
6 2 7
25
Universitatea Craiova Universitatea Craiova
6 2 7
26
Lincoln Red Imps FC Lincoln Red Imps FC
6 2 7
27
Dynamo Kyiv Dynamo Kyiv
6 2 6
28
Legia Warszawa Legia Warszawa
6 2 6
29
Slovan Bratislava Slovan Bratislava
6 2 6
30
Breidablik Breidablik
6 1 5
31
Shamrock Rovers Shamrock Rovers
6 1 4
32
BK Hacken BK Hacken
6 0 3
33
Hamrun Spartans Hamrun Spartans
6 1 3
34
Shelbourne Shelbourne
6 0 2
35
Aberdeen Aberdeen
6 0 2
36
Rapid Vienna Rapid Vienna
6 0 1
Champions League Europa / Conference Relegation
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