The evidence strongly favors Beijing Guoan to score first, with their last-5 form at 53% and an attacking rating of 79%, contrasting sharply with Shanghai Shenhua’s form of only 20%. The comparison metrics show an away advantage (73% vs 27%), and despite conflicting H2H data (home advantage at 62%), the recent performance gives confidence. Multiple independent metrics highlight Beijing’s ability to strike early, making this pick the safest. The risk is moderate given the H2H conflicting evidence but recent trends support the pick.