The 3-Way Result pick for a Home Win is supported by multiple metrics: the home side has a 71% Poisson distribution advantage and Khenchela’s season record shows 7 wins and 5 draws at home, which aligns with their strong performance. H2H data, although split, shows competitive balance with both teams winning once, but overall season stats favor Khenchela with 5 clean sheets compared to MB Rouisset’s none away. Additionally, Khenchela’s attack (44% in last 5 matches) and lower defensive risk (38%) bolster this view. The overall convergence of Poisson (71% vs 29%), season form, and fixture advantages justify an 85% probability. This prediction remains cautious given the balanced H2H and minor conflict in form stats. The odds are calculated using the fallback method, and the risk level is assessed as Low.