Fredrikstad
Full Time
Start
🤖 AI Predictions
Best Bet
Fredrikstad Win
3-Way Result
80%
confidence
The data strongly favors Fredrikstad with multiple independent indicators: a Poisson home chance of 73% and a head-to-head advantage of 71% both support a home win. Season metrics further back this with Fredrikstad scoring 1.2 goals per game while Start averages only 1.4 and has a 0% defensive rating in recent matches. This convergence across comparison metrics, H2H and season form gives us confidence. Although defensive concerns on both sides exist, the evidence points to a home win. We are thus predicting a Fredrikstad win with high certainty. Given the consistency of 73% and 71% figures, we set the probability at 80%.
Best Value
Fredrikstad Win
3-Way Result
The best value is found in the same 3-Way Result outcome as Fredrikstad Win. Despite market odds of 1.75, our conservative probability adjustment to 80% gives an expected yield of 1.40, resulting in a value edge of 40%. This edge is supported by the Poisson distribution (73% home) and head-to-head figures (71% home) as well as season metrics favoring Fredrikstad. The convergence of these statistics suggests that the odds provide significant value. While risk remains inherent in football predictions, the multiple layers of evidence make this option attractive. Therefore, this optimal bet is chosen for its value advantage.
80%
prob.
1.75
odds
All Markets
3-Way Result
Fredrikstad Win
Poisson home chance at 73% and h2h at 71%
80%
odds 1.75
Double Chance
Fredrikstad or Draw
Fredrikstad or Draw with home defense at 64% and h2h at 71%
85%
odds 1.22
Match Summary
Recent Form (last 5)
Current Standings
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