Dundalk shows a clear home advantage with a form of 62% and a Poisson distribution of 70%, supporting a Home or Draw outcome. Their overall home record (6 wins, 2 draws out of 10) indicates an 80% non-loss rate, reinforcing this pick. While H2H data is mixed, the superior comparison metrics and season stats favor Dundalk at home. This market carries moderate risk given some conflicting H2H evidence, but the convergence of metrics from comparison and season stats boosts confidence.