Football
Serie A Serie A
· Regular Season - 18
Bahia

Bahia

2–1

Full Time

Botafogo

Botafogo

🏟 Arena Fonte Nova, Salvador
🟡 Davi de Oliveira Lacerda, Brazil
📋 Regular Season - 18
📅 2026

🤖 AI Predictions

Best Bet

Bahia Win

3-Way Result

80%

confidence

Odds: 1.9 bookmaker Medium-High Risk

Our best bet selects a 3-Way Result with a Bahia Win, backed by a 62% advantage in head-to-head performance and a 57% edge in goals metric. Although recent form shows Bahia at 33% and Botafogo at 67%, the home h2h and Poisson distributions (52% to 48%) support a home win. Season stats further show Bahia’s superior defensive record with 4 clean sheets. The evidence converges from h2h and seasonal goals metrics. We remain cautious due to conflicting form data. Overall, we assign an 80% probability with medium-high risk.

Best Value

Bahia Win

Second Half Winner

The best optimal pick is Second Half Winner with a Bahia Win, offering a significant value edge. With bookmaker odds of 2.20, the implied probability is about 45.45%, and our evidence supports an 80% probability, yielding a value edge over 30%. H2H data show Bahia’s strong performance, with 62% in their favor overall, and several matches featuring a decisive second-half turn. This convergence of evidence makes it an attractive value bet despite inherent mid-match uncertainties. We note the risk remains, but the edge is clear.

80%

prob.

2.2

odds

All Markets

3-Way Result

Bahia Win

Bahia h2h 62% and goals metric 57%

80%

odds 1.9

Double Chance

Bahia or Draw

Bahia h2h 62% and 4 clean sheets

85%

odds 1.25

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Match Summary

Recent Form (last 5)

Bahia
Bahia
DDLLW
Botafogo
Botafogo
LDWLW

Current Standings

6
Bahia
Bahia
17 P 7 W 26 Pts
12
Botafogo
Botafogo
17 P 6 W 22 Pts

Head to Head

30 May 26
Bahia Bahia
2–1
Botafogo Botafogo
H
2 Oct 25
Botafogo Botafogo
2–1
Bahia Bahia
H
4 May 25
Bahia Bahia
1–0
Botafogo Botafogo
H
25 Aug 24
Bahia Bahia
0–0
Botafogo Botafogo
D
7 Aug 24
Bahia Bahia
1–0
Botafogo Botafogo
H

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League Standings

# Team P W Pts
1
Flamengo Flamengo
38 23 79
2
Palmeiras Palmeiras
38 23 76
3
Cruzeiro Cruzeiro
38 19 70
4
Mirassol Mirassol
38 18 67
5
Fluminense Fluminense
38 19 64
6
Botafogo Botafogo
38 17 63
7
Bahia Bahia
38 17 60
8
Sao Paulo Sao Paulo
38 14 51
9
Gremio Gremio
38 13 49
10
RB Bragantino RB Bragantino
38 14 48
11
Atletico-MG Atletico-MG
38 12 48
12
Santos Santos
38 12 47
13
Corinthians Corinthians
38 12 47
14
Vasco DA Gama Vasco DA Gama
38 13 45
15
Vitoria Vitoria
38 11 45
16
Internacional Internacional
38 11 44
17
Ceara Ceara
38 11 43
18
Fortaleza EC Fortaleza EC
38 11 43
19
Juventude Juventude
38 9 35
20
Sport Recife Sport Recife
38 2 17
Champions League Europa / Conference Relegation
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