Football
Primeira Liga Primeira Liga
· Regular Season - 33
Santa Clara

Santa Clara

2–0

Full Time

Nacional

Nacional

🏟 Estádio de São Miguel, Ponta Delgada
🟡 H. Carvalho
📋 Regular Season - 33
📅 2025

🤖 AI Predictions

Best Bet

Nacional Win

3-Way Result

80%

confidence

Odds: 3.5 bookmaker Medium Risk

Analyzing the comparison metrics, Nacional is favored with 64% form and a 69% defensive rating compared to Santa Clara’s 36% and 31%. The H2H data supports this with an away advantage of 62%, while season stats show Nacional’s balanced attack and defense. These converging lines of evidence justify a full-time win for Nacional. However, the mixed H2H results (three draws in recent encounters) introduce some risk. Overall, despite some uncertainty, the metrics lean towards an away win. This pick carries a moderate risk given the variance in results. With a probability estimate of 80%, the choice reflects conservative confidence.

Best Value

Draw/Away

Double Chance

The double chance market offers compelling value since covering both a draw and an away win minimizes risk. Given Nacional’s strong form (64% away form) combined with a 62% advantage in H2H and a superior defensive record in recent matches, the probability for a Draw/Away outcome can be confidently set at 90%. The bookmaker odds of 1.70 imply an estimated probability of 58.8%, rendering a value edge of over 31%. This convergence of metrics across comparison and H2H suggests significant upside. While inherent uncertainties exist, the evidence is robust. Thus, this option is selected for its strong value proposition.

90%

prob.

1.7

odds

All Markets

3-Way Result

Nacional Win

Nacional form at 64% and H2H away at 62%

80%

odds 3.5

Double Chance

Draw/Away

Away form 64% with H2H 62%

85%

odds 1.7

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Match Summary

Recent Form (last 5)

Santa Clara
Santa Clara
LLWWW
Nacional
Nacional
LWLLD

Current Standings

13
Santa Clara
Santa Clara
34 P 9 W 36 Pts
14
Nacional
Nacional
34 P 9 W 34 Pts

Head to Head

11 May 26
Santa Clara Santa Clara
2–0
Nacional Nacional
H
11 Jan 26
Nacional Nacional
3–3
Santa Clara Santa Clara
D
30 Mar 25
Santa Clara Santa Clara
1–0
Nacional Nacional
H
4 Nov 24
Nacional Nacional
2–0
Santa Clara Santa Clara
H
17 Mar 24
Santa Clara Santa Clara
0–1
Nacional Nacional
A

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League Standings

# Team P W Pts
1
FC Porto FC Porto
34 28 88
2
Sporting CP Sporting CP
34 25 82
3
Benfica Benfica
34 23 80
4
SC Braga SC Braga
34 16 59
5
Famalicao Famalicao
34 15 56
6
GIL Vicente GIL Vicente
34 13 50
7
Moreirense Moreirense
34 12 43
8
Arouca Arouca
34 12 42
9
Guimaraes Guimaraes
34 12 42
10
Estoril Estoril
34 10 39
11
Alverca Alverca
34 10 39
12
Rio Ave Rio Ave
34 8 36
13
Santa Clara Santa Clara
34 9 36
14
Nacional Nacional
34 9 34
15
Estrela Estrela
34 6 30
16
Casa Pia Casa Pia
34 6 30
17
Tondela Tondela
34 6 28
18
AVS AVS
34 3 21
Champions League Europa / Conference Relegation
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